🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.

Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."