This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Drives Villa's Unlikely Championship Bid
Just eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery admonished him for missing a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a sign or the reason of Villa's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, though, the sideline response was far more favourable. After the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, Emery tore off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win and after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, are somehow just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Hopefuls?
It remains a particularly tough query to resolve. The historical record, the traditional standing of this institution, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, while the positive results have stacked up.
According to the data, twice all season have Villa registered an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a team which has strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – but currently the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with rivals and wait for their talisman to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened when facing the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent Villa have to face as the season progresses. The forward, surely, cannot keep on drilling the football into the net's top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path where, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he showed during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
However, nobody expected this. Few believed the team would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be at the forefront of a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When the match-winner faced the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.